Guest Satisfaction, Figment, and the Impact of Fastpass on Wait Times

Recently, there has been a discussion about Disney CEO Bob Chapek's recent statement about how average guest satisfaction at Walt Disney World is higher now than in 2019.

"And our Guest satisfaction score since we’ve reopened across the world have shown that indeed our Guests are even more satisfied than they were prior to the pandemic." - Disney CEO Bob Chapek

Source: Bloomberg Markets and Finance

I think most of this increase in average guest satisfaction scores comes from a few big factors:

1. Selection effects - the hardcore fans are the people going to the parks currently.
2. Capacity restrictions - crowding and long lines have always been the top complaints at theme parks.
   
3. The "real world" sucks right now - compared to the pandemic, any entertainment that helps you forget the problems of real life is going to seem more satisfying than it was in 2019.
   
4. The cuts weren't important to the average guest - many of the eliminated experiences within the parks were very low capacity, so most guests never experienced them to begin with. For instance, the combined capacity of all character meet and greets in the Magic Kingdom was probably in the ballpark of the capacity of a single E-ticket, so cutting a character meet and greet has no impact on most people because they were never a large portion of the experience to the average guest.
   

Speculation items 1-3 about the increases in guest satisfaction do not necessarily have very much to teach us about how to build or manage a great theme park experience. As soon as tourism picks back up, these effects will vanish. However, contemplating speculation item 4 does have the potential to inform how future investments and operation strategies can be thought of in the world of theme parks. Some of these niche experiences like character meet and greets probably should return, but more thought should be made to determine how important a part of the product they really are.

Is it really worth spending $25 million to build a building for a permanent character meet and greet with a capacity of 200 people per hour? Maybe it is, but that's a lot of money for such a low capacity experience.

But personally, I am hoping that Fastpass (FP) never comes back. It is simply a bad deal for the average guest, for two reasons:

1.  FP reduces the pace of all lines. Most people would rather walk slowly for 20 minutes in line (like a conventional line) than stand still for most of a 20 minute line (as is common where FP is a part of a ride's queue management).
2. FP increases standby wait times. So where FP is used, the 20 minute standby line is now more like 25 minutes.
   

How could this be? The theory is explained here:

Each party has a maximum wait time X under which they would be willing to get in line for each ride. Without FP, a ride with an equilibrium wait time longer than X is a ride that a given party would not ride. If FP is offered, 70% of the ride's capacity is given to people who don't have to wait the equilibrium wait time. Therefore, the number of people willing to ride the ride is greater than it would be without FP, so the equilibrium wait time has to increase due to the number of seats taken by parties who ride despite the fact that the wait time is greater than X.

To illustrate this impact of FP on standby wait times, I will use the example of Journey into Imagination with Figment. FP+ was added to Journey into Imagination with Figment sometime in 2013.

The TEA Theme Index attendance numbers says the attendance at Epcot was approximately 11.1 million in 2012, prior to any form of FP being offered at the ride and 11.4 million in 2014, the first full year of FP+. In a day with average attendance in 2014, there was approximately 31,233 people in the park, 2.6% more than 2012. The attendance difference works out to an increase of approximately 821 guests per day.

In a given hour, the park's total ride capacity not including shows or movies was approximately 13,500/hour (source). From 2012 to October 2014, park attraction capacity remained the same (Maelstrom closed in October 2014).

Because I had to manually total the hourly average wait times for Imagination from TouringPlans, I decided to compare the daily average wait times for a single month in 2012 to 2014. I selected June because it is a month without a movable major holiday and it only has 30 days.

In June 2012, the average daily wait time for Journey into Imagination with Figment according to TouringPlans was 5.6 minutes. In June 2014, the average daily wait time for the ride was 9.7 minutes. This was an increase of 73%.

TouringPlans did change their methodology of collecting the data between 2012 and 2014. So, I checked June 2013, after the TouringPlans data format change when I am pretty sure that FP had yet to be installed at the ride. The TEA Theme Index attendance for Epcot in 2013 was 11.2 million. In June 2013, the average daily wait time for Imagination was 7.9 minutes, making the increase in wait time between 2013 and 2014 to be 24%.

This was a less definitive comparison than I was hoping for. But if this is true, the presence of FP at a ride increases standby wait times and reduces the pace of all lines. So if the average guest rides 10 rides a day, FP shortens three lines and makes the other seven lines longer and slower moving. A day without FP available is a day where the average guest spends less time in line and where the average guest has a more pleasant wait because of this effect.

Don't get me wrong, it is really nice to walk on to 7 Dwarfs Mine Train, Frozen, or Flight of Passage. But I know how to use the FP system to the fullest benefit. Remember that a side effect of someone walking on to Frozen is that they ride Frozen more often than they might if they always had to wait in standby line. So there are actually fewer seats available for people who are infrequent visitors.

But also, the seven lines the average guest waits in standby are longer and slower moving than they used to be. Before Journey into Imagination had FP, it's line averaged between 5.6 and 7.9 minutes in June. But with FP--while park attendance only increased about 2.6%--the average wait jumped up to 9.7 minutes in June. Journey into Imagination with Figment is only an okay ride, but worth the occasional visit when it is a walk on. But is it worth waiting 10 minutes for it? That definitely lowers the satisfaction of that part of the day compared to a world without FP.

This principle applies to all the rides and it impacts the average guest more than the repeat guest. That doesn't mean the removal of FP would be a net decline in satisfaction for the smaller class of guests who knows how to get the most of it. But the original claim made by Bob Chapek was about average satisfaction, not satisfaction within all plausible subgroups.

I think it is time to ditch Fastpass. They guests don't know that they want it, but I think they will like visiting the parks more if it was gone for good.