May 2, 2021, after my first visit to the parks since Covid-19, I made some predictions about how I thought operations would return to normal over the summer. But predictions are only valuable if you go back to them to see if any were correct. So I have returned to my predictions in order to review my performance. Let's see how I did:
CORRECT
Three-foot distancing markers in the queue for Men in Black: Alien Attack at Universal Studios Florida on May 9, 2021.
Starting May 15, masks were no longer required for fully vaccinated guests (source). Following Sea World's lead, on May 29, masks were no longer required indoors at Universal Orlando (source), and on June 15, they were no longer required at Walt Disney World, except on mass transportation (source). I was unable to determine when masks were no longer required at Legoland.
Even after the CDC revised their guidance regarding masks for vaccinated people on July 27, only Disney reinstated the indoor mask mandate, while the other resorts only encourage or recommended their use indoors.
By October 1, 2021, the theme parks at Disney World will no longer require masks indoors or limit park capacity (90%). Park reservations may still be required, but the crowd levels will not be restricted by them. For this to be correct, Disney would not necessarily need to announce an end to the capacity restrictions, but one of the trusted theme park news outlets such as TouringPlans or the theme park reporter at the Orlando Sentinel would need to publish it.
UNKNOWN/INCORRECT
I have not been able to find clear information about whether park capacity at Walt Disney World ever went back to the normal level (given the park offerings) since my prediction began. However, on the Disney Dish podcast episode 342, Len Testa of TouringPlans said that Magic Kingdom capacity on October 1st, 2021 was about 50% of normal. So this portion of the prediction is unknown, but probably incorrect.
The portion of the prediction regarding masks was correct for a few months, but is no longer correct. My claim was about the speed of a return to normalcy. So in that light, I have to say I was wrong.
By October 1, 2021, fireworks will be shown nightly at Epcot and Magic Kingdom (90%).
CORRECT
Fireworks resumed in early July.
By July 4, 2021, ride capacity restrictions, including on resort transportation, will be entirely eliminated at Disney and Universal (90%).
CORRECT
These restrictions were lifted prior to July.
By October 1, 2021, Minnie Van (or similar service) will return to Walt Disney World (75%). This would be a higher confidence level, but I think there may be some issues with procuring the necessary vehicles or drivers to run the service by October. I did notice, however, that the Main Street Emporium still sells Minnie Van toys for $9.99, despite the current absence of the service.
INCORRECT
I still think it is coming soon.
By October 1, 2021, a virtual queueing system similar to Fastpass+ or Universal Express will be offered at some attractions at Walt Disney World (75%). Expansion of the Virtual Queue system at Rise of the Resistance would also count.
INCORRECT
Disney Genie and Lightning Lane were introduced on October 19, 2021. The Virtual Queue system at Rise of the Resistance was not expanded. It just switched to Ratatouille at Epcot.
By October 1, 2021, temperature checks will no longer be used prior to entry at Walt Disney World theme parks (75%).
CORRECT
The temperature checks at Disney World were removed on May 16, 2021.
By July 4, 2021, temperature checks will no longer be used at Universal Orlando Theme parks (75%).
CORRECT
Temperature checks at Universal Orlando were removed on May 7, 2021.
By July 4, 2021, distancing markers in the queues at Walt Disney World will be removed (60%).
CORRECT
Most distancing markers in queue areas at Disney World were removed beginning around June 13, 2021.
By October 1, 2021, no major theme park operator in Orlando will install distancing markers for three foot separation of groups (60%). This applies to the dry parks at Walt Disney World, Universal Orlando, Sea World, and Legoland. If I am wrong about this one, I think it will occur soon.
INCORRECT
I was wrong about this one really quickly. My Predictions post went up on May 2, and Universal began installing markers at three-foot intervals on May 5. In that spirit, I would like to predict that the Omicron varient of Covid-19 will wipe out all of humanity.
By October 1, 2021, either Fantasmic!, the Star Wars: A Galactic Spectacular fireworks show, or both will be shown nightly at Disney Hollywood Studios (60%).
INCORRECT
The Wonderful Word of Animation projection show returned on August 1, but when I was making the prediction, I purposefully did not include that in the prediction, since I don't think it is of the same calibur or has the same drawing power that Fantasmic! or a fireworks show has. Disney has announced that Fantasmic! will be returning sometime in 2022.
Of my 90% confidence predictions, I was correct for three out of the four predictions. For the predictions I was 75% confident, I was correct for two out of the four predictions. And for the 60% confidence predictions, I was correct for one out of the three predictions. I think that I made too few predictions to accurately determine how overconfident I am. But I am definitely overconfident. So in that sense, my predictions are all correct!
