After each prediction, I have included my confidence in the prediction expressed as a percentage. Last year, I was overconfident.
I will revisit these predictions in the future to see if my confidence is more accurate this time.
Here goes!
Guardians of the Galaxy: Cosmic Rewind will end the use of boarding groups by September 1, 2022. (95%)
Tron Lightcycle Run will use boarding groups when it opens at the Magic Kingdom. (75%)
Tron Lightcycle Run will open by Thanksgiving weekend 2022. (70%)
Tiana's Bayou Adventure will not open with boarding groups. (60%)
No attraction opening between Tron Light cycle Run and Tina's Bayou Adventure will open with boarding groups. (90%)
I believe that Disney doesn't gain any meaningful data by requiring park pass reservations to enter a park (any staffing benefit would require the park pass distribution to have meaningful information three weeks before the date, but attendance variation is caused by off-property visitors do not reserve more than three weeks out). The costs of park passes to Disney in terms of lost revenue are well known. I think of park passes as essentially a gift to Universal and SeaWorld. Therefore, I believe that park pass reservations will not be required to enter a Walt Disney World park for Disney resort guests during their stays on property by October, 2022. (70%)
Park pass reservations will not be required to enter a Walt Disney World park for anyone by October, 2022. (60%)
The Orange County Penny Sales Tax for Transportation will not pass in November 2022. (85%)
I believe that the decision to pursue the northern route by Brightline to I-4 by way of the convention center has dramatically reduced the odds of this system ever being built west of MCO. This is because I think the only way to pay for the extra costs of the convention center route is if tax dollars cover the difference.
If the Orange county Penny Sales Tax for Transportation does pass in November, it will commit more than $250 million towards the construction of a passenger rail service from MCO to the convention center. (80%)
The northern route added significant barriers to the completion of Brightline to Tampa. Brightline, SunRail, or FDOT will not begin construction of a passenger rail service extension west of the MCO station by 2030. (90%)
Conditional on rail passenger service ever becoming available west of the MCO station by 2030, over $1 billion of public money will be spent to fund the construction of the infrastructure allowing the service. (95%)
I believe that Disney is realizing that the parks in Florida are in desperate need of additional capacity. I also believe that corporate management does not understand that a retheme or replacement usually does not increase capacity. Therefore, I believe Disney will announce by October 2022 that at least one previously announced project that is widely believed to be canceled is back in development to open in the next four years. The list of eligible projects includes: Mary Poppins for the Epcot UK pavilion, the Disney Storytelling version of Spaceship Earth, and the Main Street Theater for Magic Kingdom. (I reserve the right to add to this list, but I intend the list to include only stuff that was officially announced, so an Imagination pavilion update wouldn't count, for instance.) (60%)
On April 22, 2022, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis signed a bill to dissolve The Reedy Creek Improvement District (RCID) by June 2023. I believe the RCID will still exist essentially unchanged in July 2023. It may have a new name. It may no longer be allowed to build a nuclear power plant or do a handful of other things it does not currently do but technically is authorized to do. By unchanged, I mean that Disney will continue to finance the infrastructure at Walt Disney World through an industrial development district authorized by the state of Florida in a manner functionally identical to the structure authorized by the Florida legislature in 1964. (90%)
I previously believed that it was likely that the RCID would be dissolved and the infrastructure and debt would be taken over by the Disney-controlled incorporated municipalities of Lake Buena Vista and Bay Lake. Local governments in Florida have most of the powers that the state granted the RCID, but devolving the infrastructure to them would allow the governor to claim a victory without any meaningful change to Disney or imposition of taxes to the state or counties.
However, after learning a bit more about the RCID's authorizing legislation, I no longer believe that this is likely. The only way the RCID can be dismantled is if Disney wants it to be. So the only reason they would do that is if they got a reduction in taxes or something else similarly valuable.
Functionally, Universal gets most of the benefits that Disney experiences for free from the City of Orlando and Orange County. So perhaps Disney will welcome the chance to reduce their tax burden and let the local governments pay for what Disney currently pays for.
Conditional on the RCID no longer existing in July 2023, the scheme that manages and operates public infrastructure at Walt Disney World will provide a net reduction in taxes for the Walt Disney Company or otherwise provide Disney with very valuable tangible benefits over the existing RCID. (95%)
That's it for now! I'll check back in on these predictions and see how well I did.
