My predictions will be followed by a percentage which indicates how certain I am of the prediction. If I make five predictions that I am 80% confident about, I would consider my predictions successful and my confidence to be correctly calibrated if four of the five predictions were correct.
If necessary, I will include some further clarification. That way, later this year, we can all laugh about how wrong and overconfident I was, without giving me any wiggle room to say that I meant the prediction differently than I originally intended.
You will notice that the sample size of predictions is too small to use statistics to meaningfully grade my predictions. But it is still better to try to indicate my confidence in a prediction than to not.
By July 4, 2021, at least one major resort in Orlando will no longer require masks indoors (90%). The major resorts include the dry parks of Disney, Universal, Sea World, or Legoland. Busch Gardens Tampa does not count.
By October 1, 2021, the theme parks at Disney World will no longer require masks indoors or limit park capacity (90%). Park reservations may still be required, but the crowd levels will not be restricted by them. For this to be correct, Disney would not necessarily need to announce an end to the capacity restrictions, but one of the trusted theme park news outlets such as TouringPlans or the theme park reporter at the Orlando Sentinel would need to publish it.
By October 1, 2021, fireworks will be shown nightly at Epcot and Magic Kingdom (90%).
By July 4, 2021, ride capacity restrictions, including on resort transportation, will be entirely eliminated at Disney and Universal (90%).
By October 1, 2021, Minnie Van (or similar service) will return to Walt Disney World (75%). This would be a higher confidence level, but I think there may be some issues with procuring the necessary vehicles or drivers to run the service by October. I did notice, however, that the Main Street Emporium still sells Minnie Van toys for $9.99, despite the current absence of the service.
By October 1, 2021, a virtual queueing system similar to Fastpass+ or Universal Express will be offered at some attractions at Walt Disney World (75%). Expansion of the Virtual Queue system at Rise of the Resistance would also count.
By October 1, 2021, temperature checks will no longer be used prior to entry at Walt Disney World theme parks (75%).
By July 4, 2021, temperature checks will no longer be used at Universal Orlando Theme parks (75%).
By July 4, 2021, distancing markers in the queues at Walt Disney World will be removed (60%).
By October 1, 2021, no major theme park operator in Orlando will install distancing markers for three foot separation of groups (60%). This applies to the dry parks at Walt Disney World, Universal Orlando, Sea World, and Legoland. If I am wrong about this one, I think it will occur soon.
By October 1, 2021, either Fantasmic!, the Star Wars: A Galactic Spectacular fireworks show, or both will be shown nightly at Disney Hollywood Studios (60%).
This October, I will look back at these predictions, and we will all learn how much I am overconfident!
